Have Buckley's chance

Posted by Pamela on January 09, 2007

In Reply to: Have Buckley's chance posted by pamela on January 09, 2007

: : There is an Australian saying you may want to consider including in your list.

: : To "have Buckley's chance" or to "have two chances, Buckley's or none". I was told it referred to an escaped convict called Buckley who survived in the outback for 30 years after being rescued by Aboriginals. It was considered impossible for convicts in Australia to survive in the outback - hence the saying.

: : There was a recent campaign to change the saying to "Bradbury's chance" following Australian Steven Bradbury's gold medal win in the 1000m short track speed skating at the 2002 Salt Lake City Winter Olympics when all the other competitors fell over.

: Our first ever gold medal in the Winter Olympics (wasn't it?) so nobody cared how he got it (and neither did he, it seems). But for information about "Bukley's chance" see
: www.anu.edu.au andc ozwords Oct%202000 Buckley's.html It's well worth reading, but to summarise, there many Buckleys who have been claimed as the Buckley of the phrase. The earliest recorded use was in 1896 'Freemasonry and R.C.-ism ... are worked for all they are worth in Q'sland. ... Unless you are a "child" of either party your chances of promotion are 'Buckley's' (Bulletin (Sydney) 25 Jan., p. 25) and 1896 'Old man Parkes hasn't "Buckley's chance" for the Waverley seat' (Bulletin (Sydney) 22 Feb., p. 13).

: In his book Australian Folklore, Bill Wannan discusses various historical Buckleys and concludes: 'It would appear that until further research is undertaken there is Buckley's chance of solving the problem of how this phrase first came to circulate' (p. 97). However, the convict that you mentioned is listed as one of the more likely Buckleys (but not the only likely one):

:
: "William Buckley (1780-1856), the British convict transported to Australia. He escaped from custody in 1803 and lived with the Wathawurung people near Geelong for thirty-two years, becoming so much a member of the tribe that when he was found by John Batman in 1835 he could no longer speak a word of English. He was known popularly as 'the wild white man': and this popular perception is caught in an engraving which depicts him as heavily bearded, with hair long and unkempt, dressed in skins, and carrying a club and spears. He received a pardon on condition that he acted as a liaison between settlers and local Aboriginal groups..."

: The author of the ANU page (Frederick Ludowykwo) raises two serious problems with this theory: William Buckley was 'recaptured' in 1835 and died in 1856-and yet we don't begin to hear the phrase Buckley's chance until the 1890s. Secondly why would William Buckley be associated with the notion of having no chance at all given that he evaded capture for 32 years? The phrase Buckley's chance is also used in New Zealand and is first recorded in 1906. A correspondent to a New Zealand newspaper in 1934 makes the point: 'A correspondent ... writes that Buckley was one of the earliest convicts ... to escape from Botany Bay and take to the bush. It was then thought impossible to do this and live. ... Any other convict who talked of escaping was invariably told that he would have "Buckley's chance"-hence the saying' (Press (Christchurch), 27 Jan. 1934, p. 15).

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: Pamela

Digging a little deeper into the Buckley's and none story, there was a well known shop established in Melbourne in 1851 called "Buckley and Nunn" (there is a picture of the shop sign here: www.museum.vic.gov.au/marvellous/contrasts/department.asp

Fowler in "The Australian Language" writes:

"Buckley's chance" One chance in a million or none at all. Especially used in the phrases "haven't a buckley's" or "haven't a buckley's chance". Perhaps c ommemorating a convict named Buckley [the above mentioned story is then told]... An argument against this theory is that the expression did not become current untill about 1898. It is suggested that it comes from a pun on the name of the Melbourne firm Buckley and Nunn, which would explain the currency of the Australian phrase ..."

Brewers says something very similar. The problem seems to be that the link between the convict Buckley and the phrases is too lengthy, but the link between the shop name and the phrase is ... well, what exactly? Harlish Goop (not his/her real name, I'd guess) has suggested a link between the two: ttp://www.bikwil.com/ Vintage21/Buckley's-Chance.html

By the way, I'd say the most common form of this (very popular) phases is just "You've got Buckley's"
Pamela